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Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales Pace to Hold Steady in March, Despite the Uncertainty of War in the Middle East

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GM General Motors is expected to see a 9.6% year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 sales, indicating a weakening market position compared to the previous year. F Ford is anticipated to experience a 9.3% year-over-year decrease in Q1 2026 sales, reflecting a decline in market share. HMC Honda is expected to maintain its market share in Q1 2026 and is highlighted for its strong performance in hybrid vehicle sales. STLA Stellantis is forecast to achieve year-over-year market share growth in Q1 2026, indicating a positive trend despite overall market challenges. TSLA Tesla's Q1 2026 sales are forecast to decline by 4.6% year-over-year, with its market share remaining flat, indicating a slowdown in growth.

Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales Pace to Hold Steady in March, Despite the Uncertainty of War in the Middle East Sales Pace Expected to Decline Notably Compared to Tariff-Fueled Level Last Year

ATLANTA, March 25, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. new-vehicle sales pace in March is forecast to finish essentially unchanged from February, according to Cox Automotive, the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Despite the added uncertainty of a war in the Middle East, March is expected to hold steady at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of approximately 15.8 million, a level mostly consistent with the final three months of 2025.

The sales pace in March is forecasted to be lower by nearly 12% year over year, but the annual decline is mostly reflective of a burst of pre-tariff buying that pulled demand forward a year ago. March 2025 delivered an elevated sale pace of 17.9 million, a four-year high. The new-vehicle market today is very different, weighed down by the ongoing affordability challenges and broad uncertainty in the economy.

New-vehicle sales volume in March is forecast at 1.37 million units, down 14.2% from the tariff-driven surge seen in March 2025, but higher than February by 14.3%. March is traditionally a strong month for new-vehicle sales and often shows a volume increase from February.

"Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry, and that is limiting the market's ability to expand beyond the mid-15-million range."

March 2026 New-Vehicles Sales Forecast

Sales Forecast

Market Share

Segment

Mar-25

Feb-26

Mar-26

YOY%

MOM%

Feb-26

Mar-26

MOM

Mid-Size Car

76,456

57,381

65,000

-15.0 %

13.3 %

4.8 %

4.8 %

0.0 %

Compact Car

125,301

84,962

95,000

-24.2 %

11.8 %

7.1 %

7.0 %

-0.1 %

Compact SUV/Crossover

290,416

206,167

235,000

-19.1 %

14.0 %

17.3 %

17.2 %

0.1 %

Full-Size Pickup Truck

200,601

155,102

180,000

-10.3 %

16.1 %

13.0 %

13.2 %

0.2 %

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

255,588

218,687

245,000

-4.1 %

12.0 %

18.3 %

17.9 %

-0.4 %

Other Segments

642,980

472,212

545,000

-15.2 %

15.4 %

39.5 %

39.9 %

0.4 %

Grand Total

1,591,342

1,194,511

1,365,000

-14.2 %

14.3 %

100 %

100 %

Cox Automotive Industry Insights Data

Q1 Reflects a Reset From 2025 Extremes

New-vehicle sales in early 2026 have remained relatively consistent with the pace seen in the final three months of 2025, holding steady in the upper-15-million range and below highs reached last spring. The sales pace in each month of Q1 was slower year over year, most notably in March. The sales pace suggests a smaller, slower-growth market constrained by uneven consumer demand and new challenges.

"After a year marked by policy-driven sales volatility, the new-vehicle market has settled into a slower rhythm in early 2026," said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive. "The pull-ahead demand created by last spring's tariff announcements and, later, the loss of EV tax credits is now all firmly in the rearview mirror. While the stimulus of a good tax-return season is a positive, the new-vehicle market today is being shaped by higher vehicle prices, ongoing inflationary pressures, and still-elevated interest rates."

Q1 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

Q1 Sales Forecast

Market Share

OEM

Q1 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

YoY%

QoQ%

Q1 2025

Q1 2026

Difference

GM

690,339

700,167

624,404

-9.6 %

-10.8 %

17.6 %

17.0 %

-0.6 %

Toyota

570,269

652,195

569,917

-0.1 %

-12.6 %

14.5 %

15.5 %

1.0 %

Ford

498,480

542,360

452,035

-9.3 %

-16.7 %

12.7 %

12.3 %

-0.4 %

Hyundai

419,912

462,843

418,449

-0.3 %

-9.6 %

10.7 %

11.4 %

0.7 %

Honda

351,577

332,578

329,327

-6.3 %

-1.0 %

9.0 %

9.0 %

0.0 %

Stellantis

291,189

329,010

285,636

-1.9 %

-13.2 %

7.4 %

7.8 %

0.4 %

Nissan

298,722

235,603

276,568

-7.4 %

17.4 %

7.6 %

7.5 %

-0.1 %

Subaru

166,957

160,554

139,006

-16.7 %

-13.4 %

4.3 %

3.8 %

-0.5 %

VW

152,399

140,751

122,227

-19.8 %

-13.2 %

3.9 %

3.3 %

-0.6 %

Tesla

128,100

138,000

122,196

-4.6 %

-11.5 %

3.3 %

3.3 %

0.0 %

Mazda

110,316

90,680

99,480

-9.8 %

9.7 %

2.8 %

2.7 %

-0.1 %

Mercedes

75,100

91,738

87,198

16.1 %

-4.9 %

1.9 %

2.4 %

0.5 %

BMW

94,591

120,398

84,925

-10.2 %

-29.5 %

2.4 %

2.3 %

-0.1 %

Others

75,677

66,313

56,154

-25.8 %

-15.3 %

1.9 %

1.5 %

-0.4 %

NATION

3,923,628

4,063,190

3,667,521

-6.5 %

-9.7 %

100 %

100 %

Cox Automotive Industry Insights Data

New-vehicle sales performance in Q1 has been uneven across different brands, models, and market segments. Sales of smaller vehicles — particularly compact cars and compact SUVs — have fallen more than the overall industry, reflecting weaker demand from lower-income buyers and the ongoing affordability pressures for mainstream shoppers. Sales of more expensive full-size trucks and SUVs also declined in Q1. Midsize segments, however, are forecast to see sales growth in Q1, driven by new product launches and, in some cases, buyers stepping down from higher price points. Toyota and Hyundai are expected to deliver solid share growth in Q1, as will Nissan, thanks to strong Rogue and Pathfinder sales. Stellantis is also forecast to deliver year over year share growth.

Electric vehicles, which surged briefly last year ahead of incentive changes, have seen softer demand in early 2026, as the loss of federal tax incentives continues to negatively impact the market. Despite rapidly increasing fuel prices, EV sales are forecast to be lower by 28% year over year in Q1. Sales of hybrid vehicles, however, thanks largely to Toyota and Honda, continue to demonstrate solid growth.

Cox Automotive expects the new-vehicle sales pace for the full year of 2026 to be 15.8 million, down about 2.6% from 2025, a forecast that remains unchanged from the beginning of the year. While the baseline outlook assumes current geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility ease in the coming months, prolonged disruption could create additional downside risk for vehicle demand.

About Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Cox Automotive powers industry-leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets through proprietary technology and insights derived from billions of annual online interactions. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader ®, Kelley Blue Book ®, Manheim ®, vAuto ®, Dealertrack ®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch ® and Cox Fleet ®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Cox Automotive has been included on Glassdoor's Best Companies in Tech & AI 2026 and Best Place to Work in 2026 lists. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or  Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.

SOURCE Cox Automotive