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Institutional Investors Gird Their Portfolios in Anticipation of Turbulence in 2026, According to Natixis Investment Managers Survey

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BOSTON--( BUSINESS WIRE)--After three consecutive years of double-digit returns on most indexes, almost 8 in 10 (79%) U.S. institutional investors say that markets are due for a correction in 2026, according to survey findings published today by Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM). On average, U.S. institutional investors assign a 49% probability of a 10 - 20% market correction in 2026, and a 20% probability of a market correction deeper than 20%.

Developed with CoreData Research, Natixis IM surveyed 515 global institutional investors in September and October 2025 who collectively manage $29.9 trillion in assets for public and private pensions, insurers, foundations, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds worldwide. Survey participants include 80 U.S. institutional investors responsible for managing over $5 trillion in assets.

Behind these correction concerns lie key economic risks that U.S. institutional investors are weighing against the potential for continued market opportunity:

“The outlook for 2026 is clouded for institutional investors,” said Dave Goodsell, Executive Director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight. “After years of strong returns, risks that once felt distant are more tangible. With uncertainty surrounding geopolitics, growth, and inflation, investors are positioning portfolios to weather whatever conditions 2026 may bring.”

2026 Seen Favoring Active Strategies

Top portfolio risks for 2026 include valuations (63%), inflation (55%), and concentration (44%), with the latter two risks rising from 40% and 24% in 2025, respectively. Further, 59% see volatility rising across equities, while 36% see volatility rising across bonds. To hedge these risks and sustain another year of solid returns, U.S. institutional investors are prioritizing diversification and active management, with nearly two-thirds (63%) saying active strategies will be favored in 2026.

“Institutional investors recognize that 2026 will demand more nuance,” said Liana Magner, EVP, Head of Institutional and Retirement Strategy. “With almost two-thirds saying their active strategies outperformed in 2025 – and a similar share expecting active approaches to be favored in 2026 – there’s a clear acknowledgment that today’s markets require more than passive exposure. Active management provides the discipline and insight needed to identify durable opportunities and build greater resilience into portfolios.”

Over seven in ten (71%) investors believe the 60:20:20 portfolio (equities: fixed income: alternatives) will outperform the traditional 60:40 mix:

One key shift for 2026 is the growing trend among institutional investors to look outside the U.S., driven by concerns about rising politicization. Globally, 63% say the politicization of U.S. institutions will weaken the country’s investment case, a view shared by more than half (51%) of U.S. investors.

While global investors now favor Europe slightly (52%) over the U.S. (48%), most U.S. investors (63%) still expect domestic markets to outperform. Even so, nearly half plan to diversify abroad—boosting allocations to Europe (46%), Asia-Pacific (44%), and Emerging Asia (42%), compared with just 25% increasing U.S. exposure. The shift underscores efforts to manage concentrated domestic risk while capturing new growth from supply-chain realignment and industrial policy.

A full copy of the report on the Natixis Investment Managers Institutional Investor 2025 Market Outlook can be found here: https://www.im.natixis.com/en-us/insights/investor-sentiment/2025/institutional-outlook

Methodology

Natixis Investment Managers, Global Survey of Institutional Investors conducted by CoreData Research in September and October 2025. The survey included 515 institutional investors in 29 countries throughout North America, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

About the Natixis Center for Investor Insight

The Natixis Center for Investor Insight is a global research initiative focused on the critical issues shaping today’s investment landscape. The Center examines sentiment and behavior, market outlooks and trends, and risk perceptions of institutional investors, financial professionals and individuals around the world. Our goal is to fuel a more substantive discussion of issues with a 360° view of markets and insightful analysis of investment trends.

About Natixis Investment Managers

Natixis Investment Managers’ multi-affiliate approach connects clients to the independent thinking and focused expertise of more than 15 active managers. Ranked among the world’s largest asset managers 1 with more than $1.5 trillion assets under management 2 (€1.3 trillion), Natixis Investment Managers specializes in high-conviction active investment strategies, insurance and pension solutions, and private assets, and delivers a diverse offering across asset classes, styles, and vehicles. The firm partners with clients in order to understand their unique needs and provide insights and investment solutions tailored to their long-term goals.

Headquartered in Paris and Boston, Natixis Investment Managers is part of Groupe BPCE, the second-largest banking group in France through the Banque Populaire and Caisse d’Epargne retail networks. Natixis Investment Managers’ affiliated investment management firms include AEW; DNCA Investments; 3 Flexstone Partners; Gateway Investment Advisers; Harris | Oakmark; Investors Mutual Limited; Loomis, Sayles & Company; Mirova; Naxicap Partners; Ossiam; Ostrum Asset Management; Seventure Partners; Thematics Asset Management; Vauban Infrastructure Partners; Vaughan Nelson Investment Management; VEGA Investment Solutions and WCM Investment Management. Additionally, investment solutions are offered through Natixis Investment Managers Solutions and Natixis Advisors, LLC. Not all offerings are available in all jurisdictions. For additional information, please visit Natixis Investment Managers’ website at im.natixis.com | LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/natixis-investment-managers.

Natixis Investment Managers’ distribution and service groups include Natixis Distribution, LLC, a limited purpose broker-dealer and the distributor of various US registered investment companies for which advisory services are provided by affiliated firms of Natixis Investment Managers, Natixis Investment Managers International (France), and their affiliated distribution and service entities in Europe and Asia.

1 Survey respondents and publicly available data ranked by Investment & Pensions Europe/Top 500 Asset Managers 2025 ranked Natixis Investment Managers as the 20th largest asset manager in the world based on assets under management as of December 31, 2024.

2 Assets under management (AUM) of affiliated entities measured as of September 30, 2025, are $1,528.4 billion (€1,300.9 billion). AUM, as reported, may include notional assets, assets serviced, gross assets, assets of minority-owned affiliated entities and other types of nonregulatory AUM managed or serviced by firms affiliated with Natixis Investment Managers.

3 A brand of DNCA Finance.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed-income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided.

The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary.

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