As Humanoid Robot Output Climbs Toward 100,000 Units, MES Inc. Outlines the Manufacturing Shift From Billet Machining to Volume Production
The Ohio-based sourcing and supply chain firm says the processes that carry a robot through prototyping won't carry it through volume, and the switch needs to be planned before production demand arrives
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Oct. 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- MES Inc., a global manufacturing sourcing and supply chain partner to Fortune 500 OEMs, today released guidance for robotics companies preparing to move humanoid and mobile robots from pilot builds to volume production. MES's view is that the main constraint at that stage comes from the hardware rather than the software. Specifically, it is how quickly a company can move dozens of structural components from billet machining to die casting, forging and extrusion without losing quality or schedule.
Every humanoid robot built at volume still depends on dozens of cast, forged, extruded and machined components.
Humanoid production is moving out of small-batch builds. Industry estimates put global humanoid robot shipments at roughly 13,000 to 16,000 units in 2025. In July, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said the country's annual humanoid output is on track to top 100,000 units in 2026. In late June, AgiBot rolled its 15,000th robot off the line, less than three months after reaching 10,000. In the U.S., Tesla has announced plans for an Optimus production line designed for 1 million units a year, and Boston Dynamics expects capacity for 30,000 Atlas robots a year by 2028.
Each of those robots includes structural frames and chassis, actuator and joint housings, gearbox and harmonic drive housings, motor enclosures, and battery and electronics housings. At prototype volumes, engineering teams usually machine these parts from billet so they can change designs quickly. When volumes reach the tens or hundreds of thousands, the parts have to move to die casting, forging and extrusion, followed by precision CNC machining on the critical interfaces.
"The parts that got a robot through its pilot builds are usually the wrong parts for volume production," said Hiten Shah, founder of MES Inc. "A machined-from-billet housing works well when you're building fifty units and changing the design every month. At fifty thousand units, that same housing has to become a casting or a forging, with the tooling, foundry capacity and qualified suppliers to support it. That takes time to develop, and it should start well before the production schedule calls for it."
Five constraints to address before volume production
"When a billet part is converted to a casting, the part itself changes," said Brad Layne, Engineering Manager at MES. "Wall sections, draft, porosity-critical surfaces and datum schemes all have to be redesigned for the new process. Then the machined features have to hold tolerance against a cast surface instead of a solid block. We work through that with engineering teams part by part, so the first production tool is right the first time."
MES supports robotics manufacturers with die casting, forging, extrusion and precision CNC machining through a globally distributed supplier network. The company also qualifies suppliers, reviews designs for manufacturability, and manages quality across regions as programs scale.
MES's full analysis, "Inside Robotics Manufacturing: What It Takes to Build Robots at Scale," is available at https://www.mesinc.net/inside-robotics-manufacturing/.
About MES Inc.
MES Inc. is a global manufacturing sourcing and supply chain company headquartered in Lewis Center, Ohio. Founded by Hiten Shah, MES serves Fortune 500 OEMs across the automotive, energy, robotics, electrical, lighting, and construction and agriculture sectors. The company manages sourcing, quality and delivery end to end through operations in the United States, Mexico, Poland, India, Vietnam, China and beyond. MES has held ISO 9001:2015 certification since 2009 and is NMSDC certified. Learn more at www.mesinc.net.
SOURCE MES, Inc.