Groowe Groowe BETA / Newsroom
⏱ News is delayed by 15 minutes. Sign in for real-time access. Sign in

United States Used Car Market Analysis and Growth Outlook 2026-2031 | Affordability and Certified Pre-Owned Demand Drive Growth

globenewswire.com
KMX CarMax is mentioned as a company in the competitive landscape of the used car market. The article does not provide specific sentiment towards CarMax itself, but places it among other large dealer groups. CVNA Carvana is listed as a company in the competitive landscape of the used car market. The article does not offer specific sentiment for Carvana, but includes it in the context of market consolidation and competition. AN AutoNation reported a 14% increase in used-vehicle gross profit in Q4 2024 and is expanding its dealership network, indicating positive performance and growth. The company is also noted for attaching F&I products, adding significant profit per unit. LAD Lithia Motors sold a significant number of used vehicles and increased gross profit per unit, indicating strong operational performance and profitability in the used car market. PAG Penske Automotive Group is mentioned as expanding its dealership network, indicating growth and a positive market position within the consolidating used car industry. They also benefit from F&I product attachment. THO Toyota's certified pre-owned program shows strong dealer participation and customer retention, with 40% of CPO customers purchasing a new Toyota within four years, indicating program success and brand loyalty.

United States Used Car Market Analysis and Growth Outlook 2026-2031 | Affordability and Certified Pre-Owned Demand Drive Growth Dublin, Aug. 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "United States Used Car - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)" has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

The United States used car market was valued at USD 852.80 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase from USD 871.30 billion in 2026 to USD 980.48 billion by 2031. The market is expected to register a compound annual growth rate of 2.41% during the 2026-2031 forecast period.

The market report analyzes vendor type, fuel type, body type, sales channel, and state-level performance. Forecasts are provided by value in USD and volume in units, offering insight into changing consumer preferences, competitive developments, vehicle supply, and dealership strategies across the United States used car market.

Higher New-Vehicle Prices Support Used Car Demand

Rising new-vehicle prices remain a major driver of used car sales in the United States. Average new-car transaction prices reached USD 48,841 in July 2025, while typical monthly payments exceeded USD 700. In comparison, average used car loan balances stood at USD 26,795 in mid-2025, encouraging cost-conscious and first-time buyers to consider pre-owned vehicles.

The affordability gap is particularly significant in California, New York, and Illinois, where elevated living expenses increase household budget pressures. Dealers report growing demand for three-year-old crossovers among consumers who previously considered entry-level new sedans. Pricing pressure may persist through 2027 as automakers continue prioritizing higher-margin trucks and SUVs. AutoNation reported a 14% increase in used-vehicle gross profit during the fourth quarter of 2024, highlighting the importance of strategic sourcing and reconditioning.

Certified Pre-Owned Programs Expand

Manufacturer-backed certified pre-owned programs are strengthening consumer confidence and creating additional revenue opportunities for franchised dealers. Toyota achieved 80% dealer participation in its program and reported that 40% of certified pre-owned customers purchased a new Toyota within four years.

Certified pre-owned sales outperformed the broader used vehicle category in 2024, supported by warranty coverage, manufacturer marketing, and dealership reconditioning capabilities. Programs such as Acura Precision Used also contribute to warranty-linked service revenue and long-term customer retention. Franchise dealerships benefit from lower inventory financing costs and broader operational scale, increasing their competitive advantage over smaller independent sellers.

Elevated Interest Rates Limit Affordability

Higher borrowing costs continue to restrain United States used car market growth. In the third quarter of 2025, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle loan was approximately USD 538. Auto loan delinquency rates of 60 days or more reached about 1.45%, indicating moderate credit pressure.

Subprime borrowers face particularly high financing costs, while lenders have maintained tighter credit standards, including larger down payment requirements and lower loan-to-value ratios. With interest rates expected to remain elevated into 2026, financing affordability will continue influencing vehicle selection and purchase timing.

Additional market factors examined in the report include:

Organized Dealers Strengthen Their Market Position

Organized dealers accounted for 51.27% of the United States used car market in 2025 and are forecast to expand at a 7.41% CAGR through 2031. Their scale supports bulk vehicle acquisition, advanced pricing technology, faster inventory turnover, and more efficient reconditioning.

Lithia Motors sold 84,251 used vehicles during the third quarter of 2024 and increased gross profit per unit to USD 2,115. Meanwhile, independent dealers, which represented 48.73% of market volume, face margin pressure from online price transparency, higher reconditioning expenses, and financing risks.

Market consolidation is continuing as AutoNation, Penske Automotive Group, and Sonic Automotive expand their dealership networks. Large dealer groups attach finance and insurance products to approximately 75-80% of transactions, generating an estimated USD 1,500-2,000 in additional profit per unit. Smaller dealers increasingly seek partnerships or acquisition opportunities to access stronger technology, financing, and logistics infrastructure.

Battery-Electric Used Vehicle Sales Gain Momentum

Gasoline vehicles represented 84.28% of the market in 2025, but used battery-electric vehicle sales are projected to grow at a 7.78% CAGR through 2031. Used EV prices declined by 25% during 2024, bringing many models into the USD 25,000-28,000 range. Hertz's sale of 20,000 electric vehicles in early 2024 also increased market supply.

Although federal used-EV incentives were repealed, lower energy and maintenance expenses continue to support demand, particularly in coastal metropolitan areas with established charging networks. Hybrid vehicle demand is also rising as consumers prioritize fuel efficiency, while diesel market share is declining amid stricter emissions requirements. Stabilizing EV residual values, long battery warranties, and state zero-emission vehicle mandates are expected to support continued adoption.

United States Used Car Market Report Scope

Key Topics Covered

1 Introduction

1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition

1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

4.1 Market Overview

4.2 Market Drivers

4.2.1 Rising New-Vehicle Prices Driving Value-Seeking Buyers

4.2.2 Expansion of Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) Programs

4.2.3 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) USD 4k Used-EV Credit Energizing Secondary EV Demand

4.2.4 Original Equipment Manufacturer Subscription-to-Resale Loops Boosting Late-Model Supply

4.2.5 AI-Driven Dynamic-Pricing Engines Lifting Dealer Profitability

4.2.6 Dealer-Built Home-Delivery Logistics Widening Catchment Areas

4.3 Market Restraints

4.3.1 Higher Interest-Rate Environment Suppressing Affordability

4.3.2 Post-Pandemic Shortage of 0-4-Yr Lease Returns

4.3.3 Normalizing Wholesale Auction Prices, Compressing Margins

4.3.4 State "Right-to-Repair" Data Rules Raising Reconditioning Costs

4.4 Value/Supply-Chain Analysis

4.5 Regulatory Landscape

4.6 Technological Outlook

4.7 Porter's Five Forces

4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants

4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers

4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers

4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes

4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value (USD) and Volume (Units))

5.1 By Vendor Type

5.1.1 Organized

5.1.2 Unorganized

5.2 By Fuel Type

5.2.1 Gasoline

5.2.2 Diesel

5.2.3 Hybrid

5.2.4 Battery-Electric

5.3 By Body Type

5.3.1 Hatchback

5.3.2 Sedan

5.3.3 Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV)/Multi-Purpose Vehicle (MPV)

5.3.4 Pickup and Van

5.4 By Sales Channel

5.4.1 Offline

5.4.2 Online

5.5 By State

5.5.1 California

5.5.2 Texas

5.5.3 Florida

5.5.4 New York

5.5.5 Illinois

5.5.6 Pennsylvania

5.5.7 Ohio

5.5.8 Georgia

5.5.9 North Carolina

5.5.10 Washington

5.5.11 Rest of United States

6 Competitive Landscape

6.1 Market Concentration

6.2 Strategic Moves

6.3 Market Share Analysis

6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products and Services, SWOT Analysis, and Recent Developments)

6.4.1 CarMax Inc.

6.4.2 Carvana Co.

6.4.3 AutoNation Inc.

6.4.4 Lithia Motors Inc.

6.4.5 Sonic Automotive Inc.

6.4.6 Penske Automotive Group

6.4.7 Berkshire Hathaway Automotive

6.4.8 Group 1 Automotive Inc.

6.4.9 Asbury Automotive Group

6.4.10 Hendrick Automotive Group

6.4.11 CarBravo

6.4.12 DriveTime Automotive Group

6.4.13 Cox Automotive (Autotrader, KBB)

6.4.14 TrueCar Inc.

6.4.15 Cars.com Inc.

6.4.16 ACV Auctions Inc.

6.4.17 Manheim

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/ylv6th

About ResearchAndMarkets.com

ResearchAndMarkets.com is the world's leading source for international market research reports and market data. We provide you with the latest data on international and regional markets, key industries, the top companies, new products and the latest trends.